The hottest oil price fell after PTA's weak reboun

2022-08-21
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The oil price fell after PTA's weak rebound under the pressure of the debt crisis

Part I futures market this week

the main contract ta1009 of Zheng Shangsuo rebounded slightly and fell on Friday. The opening price was 7710. It jumped high in the middle of the week, with a maximum of 7746 and a minimum of 7362. It opened sharply lower on Friday under the pressure of the external market, and finally closed at 7472, with a weekly drop of 418 points. Its position was 199612 hands and trading volume hands

Part II spot market this week

I. the inner market of spot in East China showed a sharp downward trend

the inner market of PTA in East China showed a sharp downward trend this week, with the price from yuan/ton last Friday to yuan/ton this Friday afternoon. The weekly decline was 400 yuan. At the beginning of the week, affected by the euro zone debt crisis and the Greek debt crisis, the international crude oil and stock futures markets both plummeted, PTA futures fell by the intraday limit, and the spot price plummeted from 7700 yuan to 7300 yuan/ton, down as much as 400 yuan/ton. In the middle of the week, PTA futures oversold and rebounded, opening low and going high. PTA spot atmosphere slightly stabilized, and the market quotation rose slightly to 7400 yuan/ton. Near the weekend, the crude oil and PTA futures market fell again, and the spot price continued to decline. Buyers were cautious about inquiries and negotiated to RMB/ton. At present, the operating load of domestic PTA manufacturers remains above 90%, and the supply in the spot market is abundant. It is expected that the PTA Market in East China will be difficult to overcome its weakness in the short term

II. Sharp downward trend of Asian spot market

this week, the PTA spot market in Asia showed a sharp downward trend, with the price falling by $65 per week from $per ton last Friday to $per ton CFR China on Friday afternoon (l/c90 days). Facing the pressure of rising interest rates and PTA futures prices plummeted, PTA spot market was weak. At the beginning of the week, the PTA spot market showed a panic decline, and the offer of Taiwan products fell sharply to less than $900/ton. In the middle of the week, PTA futures stopped falling and rebounded, the spot market stabilized, and Taiwan products were negotiated in USD/ton. Near the weekend, the futures market fluctuated downward, the downstream polyester market was weak, the overall production and sales were at a high level, the demand was weakened, and the inquiry was light. In the short term, the PTA Market in Asia was mainly weak and downward

Part III upstream and downstream analysis

I. upstream

1. Economic concerns coupled with the strong rise of the US dollar, the international crude oil continued to fall

affected by a variety of factors such as the resurgence of economic worries, the strong rise of the US dollar, and the continuous rise of crude oil inventories, the international oil market continued to be weak. First, the early rise in international crude oil prices was mainly driven by optimistic economic expectations, rather than a strong recovery in demand. The Greek debt crisis broke out and began to spread to surrounding countries, which made the market re breed concerns about the global economy and loosened the foundation supporting the rise of crude oil. Secondly, the spread of the European sovereign debt crisis has led to rising panic in the global financial market. Investors' preference for risky assets has significantly decreased, and they have turned to the U.S. dollar and other safe haven assets. The strong rise of the U.S. dollar index further exacerbated the downward pressure on oil prices. Thirdly, the continuous high crude oil inventory poses a potential hidden danger to the oil market

the latest report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that as of the week of May 7, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.9 million barrels to 365.5 million barrels from the previous week, which is at the high average level in the same period. Gasoline and distillate oil inventories both hit a five-year high. The crude oil inventory of Cushing, the delivery place of U.S. crude oil futures contracts, rose to a record high of 37million barrels in the week. Compared with the rising inventory, the recovery of oil demand is difficult to meet previous expectations. EIA predicts that during the peak driving season in spring and summer this year, gasoline demand only increased slightly by 0.9%, so the boost to oil demand during the peak driving season is basically offset by the continued high crude oil inventory

the atmosphere of the crude oil market has not improved this week, and international oil prices have plunged. The market has many doubts about the solution of the euro zone debt crisis, and is more worried that it will drag down the process of global economic recovery. At the same time, U.S. crude oil inventories continue to increase, and supply and demand fundamentals are weak. NYMEX June crude oil futures expiring this week reluctantly exited at $68.01 per barrel, a new low since October 2009. Brent crude oil, which was relatively strong in the early stage, fell more than $8 a week, narrowing its premium over WTI crude oil to less than $4

on Friday (14th), despite the improvement of indicators such as U.S. retail sales, industrial production and consumer confidence index, the news that the euro fell to an 18 month low against the U.S. dollar (1.2495, -0.0085, -0.68%) hit the crude oil market. NYMEX June crude oil futures fell by $2.79 to $71.61/barrel, and the monthly contract for delivery from July fell by more than $3

as the debt problem in the euro zone has been pending and has a tendency to worsen, the market's view on the global economic recovery has changed, and investors who had previously bought a large number of crude oil futures have switched to the US dollar for hedging. The crude oil market on Monday (17th) was hard to find positive, and the decline in oil prices remained unchanged. NYMEX June crude oil futures once fell below $70/barrel

during the Asian session on Tuesday (18th), the rebound of the euro and the general rise of Asian stock markets prompted oil prices to rise by more than $2. However, the ban on naked short selling issued by Germany caused the euro exchange rate to plummet to a near four-year low, and crude oil futures retreated gloomily. Although the oil price in New York fell by only $0.67 that day, the closing price finally fell below the key point of $70/barrel, which had a great impact on the market mentality

the minutes of the April meeting released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday (19th) showed that the Federal Reserve raised the economic growth expectation to 3.2%-3.7% with the formal consent of major shareholders and the formal resolution of the board of directors on March 13, 2017, temporarily suppressing the market's anxiety about the prospects of European recovery. Meanwhile, according to EIA statistics, crude oil inventories increased by 200000 barrels in the week ended May 14, lower than market expectations. NYMEX crude oil futures in June ended its six consecutive negative months, but NYMEX crude oil futures contracts in other months and Brent June contracts continued to decline

however, U.S. crude oil inventories are still high, especially in Cushing, where NYMEX crude oil futures are delivered, which continued to rise last week. Investors are also worried that the difficult economic recovery in the euro zone will drag down crude oil demand. Coupled with the increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time last week, international oil prices fell sharply to a nearly nine month low on Thursday (20th). NYMEX June crude oil futures expiring on the same day fell by 2.66%, and Brent crude oil also fell to the level in early February

this week, the average price of WTI crude oil futures fell by 7.76%, or $5.870, to $69.796/barrel. Brent crude oil futures also fell 6.98% this week, or $5.590, to $74.448/barrel. Crude oil spot prices across the country also fell sharply, with the average price falling by more than $5 this week

2. PX prices fell sharply

dragged down by the continuous heavy decline of crude oil, Singapore naphtha prices fell below the $80 mark, and the downstream aromatic hydrocarbon market was also affected by the decline in costs, so PX entered the downward trend again. As of the day before, the quotation of PX and MX cargoes in South Korea based on FOB in late May was $980 and 870/ton respectively, and the price difference narrowed from $130/ton at the end of April to $110/ton. The production profit of PX manufacturers in Asia has been continuously reduced, and the transaction level has gradually moved closer to the cost line (the cost from MX processing to PX is generally $80-100/ton, and according to this calculation, the current PX production profit is only $10-30/ton). Production profits continued to decline, the enthusiasm of PX enterprises in Asia was hit, and the load of some production devices decreased slightly, but it was still difficult to reverse the situation of excess supply. At the same time, due to the opening of the arbitrage window from Europe to Asia, it is expected that a large number of low-cost PX shipments from Europe will flow into the Asian market in the later stage, and the market supply will be increasingly abundant. In contrast, in the downstream PTA spot market, due to the sluggish recovery of terminal demand, polyester and polyester cutting currently have a misunderstanding of Pu hard bubbles in China, and the production and sales of various industries have declined to varying degrees. PTA spot transactions have weakened. At the same time, Chongqing, as an important economic growth and industrial agglomeration area in the western region, has some inventory in the early stage, the purchase demand for PX has weakened, and the rebound of PX prices in Asia is weak

this week, the Asian PX spot market fell sharply. Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil prices, it is difficult to support the cost of PX. The market price of PX in Asia showed a downward trend. From FOB South Korea 1055, the United States Yulian group insisted on integrity-based yuan/ton fell to the current $931/ton, down $124/ton. At present, the supply of PX in Asia exceeds demand, and the impact of the downturn in International oil prices led to further shrinking demand. Due to the impact of the European debt crisis, crude oil has fallen sharply recently, and the US dollar has hit new highs, causing the prices of naphtha, MX and PX in PTA's upstream petrochemical industry chain to continue to fall, with crude oil and naphtha falling significantly. The pressure of domestic PTA downstream industry is rising, and the high market operating rate has led to the recent rising inventory of polyester staple fiber, while the market sales situation is general, and the polyester chip has not stopped falling after falling below the 10000 yuan level. The fundamentals are bad, which makes PX face great pressure

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